From various survey data, the present, past and future of the domestic PC market

　国内PC市場に関する市場調査が相次いで発表された。MM総研は、2021年(2021年1月～12月)の出荷実績を発表。GfK JapanもPCとタブレットを加えた2021年の国内IT市場の販売動向をまとめた。また、一般社団法人電子情報技術産業協会(JEITA)は、毎月発表される国内PC出荷統計として、最新の2022年1月のデータを発表。さらにJEITAでは、毎年発表する「AV&IT機器世界需要動向調査」を公表し、2026年までの国内PC出荷見通しを明らかにした。これらのデータから、国内PC市場の現在、過去、未来を見てみよう。【この記事に関する別の画像を見る】■ 2021年はGIGAスクールの反動で大幅減少　まずは、2021年の実績から見てみよう。　MM総研によると、2021年(2021年1月～12月)の国内PC市場は、前年比16.It was 9%down to 1,3221,000 units.The shipment record in 2020 was 15.91 million units due to the GIGA School concept and telework demand, and it has been recorded a record high since its statistics in 1995, but in 2021, there was a reaction that was no longer demand.It was decreasing.The number of shipments by sales route is 10 from the previous year in the personal market..4.29,000 units decreased by 8%, corporate markets 19 -year -old year..The number of units decreased by 5%to 9,012,000 units, and the decrease in the corporate market, which has been counted in GIGA school demand, was large.The ranking of the manufacturer by manufacturer is also affected by the recoil of GIGA School demand.NEC Lenovo, the first place, continued to be the leader in the previous year, but the share was 34..From 6%, 29.4%and 5.Two points are also decreasing.For Lenovo NEC, who was the top share in the GIGA school configuration, the reaction was the largest, but it shows the strength of the leading position.The second -place Japan HP is 2020 16.From 1%, 15.4%0.7 points decreased.Due to the lack of parts, the point that could not respond to demand was negative.It can be said that it has become a brand that consists of the second -largest position in Japan.The third place was Fujitsu Client Computing, which rose from the fourth place in the previous year.12 in 2020.The share that was 1%was 12 in 2021.8%and 0.7 points were enhanced.In the GIGA School Demand as a whole, Chromebook accounted for about 40 %, but in 2020, Fujitsu Client Computing, which did not have a Chromebook lineup, was developed only with Windows, which was only 30 % in the GIGA school demand.。Therefore, it can be said that the effect was limited.In other words, the result was that there was little recoil in 2021 because it was not greatly affected.Despite the fact that it was broken the previous year, the demand for individuals was strong, and demand was recovered, and the size of the occupation was small.The fourth place was Del Technologies, one of the third place in the previous year.In the GIGA School demand, Chromebook has been active on the aggressive development, but it can be said that the reaction was great.The share of 2020 is 14.It was 5%, but 2021 was 12.It became 7%.It seems that one of the factors is that it did not line up a consumer Chromebook and did not lead to a mowing in the individual market.The fifth place was Dynabook.It was the same 5th place as the previous year, but the share was 2020 6.From 1%, 7 in 2021.2%and 1.One point also increased its share.It seems that incorporating demand for telework and on -site solutions has become a positive element.The sixth place Apple, in this high ranking, exceeded the previous year's results.The ranking did not change, but the number of shipments was 17 year -on -year..It has increased by 3%, and the share is 3 in 2020..From 6%, 5 in 2021.It rose to 0%. Products equipped with the M1 series have increased and are directly linked to sales increase. On the other hand, GFK Japan has announced the sales trends in the IT market in 2021, based on sales results data from leading home and IT dealers nationwide. The company defines PCs and tablets as the "IT / office market." According to this, the PC and tablet terminal market decreased 13%year -on -year to 22.9 million units. "Demand for the GIGA School concept continued from the previous year to the spring, but after that, special demand has settled down and has fallen below the previous year." Of these, PCs decreased 14%year -on -year to 14.7 million units from the previous year. In addition, the number of personal markets is 4.1 million units, down 11%year -on -year. "It was under the demand for replacement due to the end of Windows 7 support in 2020 and the expansion of the market through telework and online classes." The market for corporate companies decreased by 15%year -on -year to 10.6 million units, saying that "the significant boosting in the past two years due to the demand for replacement and the GIGA school concept has fallen below the previous year's sales." Tablets were 8.2 million units, down 14%year -on -year. Personal markets decreased by 23%to 2.6 million units. Corporate markets decreased by 9%to 5.6 million units. Both were negative growth. "For individuals, demand in the previous year was high due to telework, online classes, and increased home time, but in 2021 the demand settled down and broke down the previous year. For corporations, 2019 and 2020. Although the demand for it was settled down, it was a higher level compared to before. " Looking at the tablet by communication method, the quantity configuration ratio of the Wi-Fi model increased by 6 points to 69%, 29%for carrier line models, and 2%for SIM-free models. ■ In December 2021, he has announced its shipment in 2021 as voluntary statistical data in JEITA, which has been the lowest ever. This is a statistics of Apple Japan, NEC Personal Computers, Seiko Epson, Dynabook, Panasonic, Fujitsu Client Computing, Unitcom, and Lenovo Japan, but does not capture the entire market, but it has a speculation value. It is meaningful as a fixed point observation data. As has been reported in this magazine, the number of shipments in the domestic PC in 2021 was 15 year -on -year..2%decrease 8,869,000 units, shipments are 9.It fell 6%to 751.7 billion yen.In particular, since 2007, when the current system was investigated in December 2021, it was the lowest ever in December, and the sluggish PC market was remarkable.In this way, it can be seen that the domestic PC market in 2021 has declined significantly from the results of the previous year, even if the data from each company.Elements such as the recoil of the GIGA School concept, the round of telework demand, and the delay in product supply due to lack of components.In addition, the situation that Windows 11, released in October 2021, is not possible to be a detonator.In addition, the annual shipping record of the 2021 copy/multifunction device announced by the Business Machinery and Information System Industrial Association (JBMIA) is 8 in Japan year -on -year..9%decreased 445,972 units.Of these, 7 color copies and multifunction machines are 7.2%decrease 393,194 units, monochrome copies and multifunction machines 19.7%decreased to 52,778 units.In addition, the number of overseas shipments per year is 1 year -on -year..It increased by 2%to 3,148,369 units.Due to the decrease in the rate of expenditure to the office due to the increase in telework, the momentum of demand has slowed down.Furthermore, in the second half, the shortage of members, including semiconductors, led to a delay in procurement of the copier and multifunction device.■ If the situation continues since the start of 2022, what about the trends in the domestic PC market in 2022?JEITA announced in January 2022, the shipment record of the domestic PC was 60 from the same month of the previous year..8%decreased to 551,000 units, shipments are 29.It was 58.6 billion yen, decreasing 0%.Both corporations and individuals have fallen significantly, and they have been broken the previous year for 10 consecutive months.Moreover, the decrease width is the largest in the last 10 months.An unusual background, which is an unusual depression, is also a reaction to GIGA School demand.In the same month of the previous year, the introduction of the GIGA School concept was driven, and the number of shipments increased at a stretch.109 that is more than doubled compared to the same month of the previous year.There is a reaction that has increased by 8%, showing significant growth.In addition, it was time for Windows 7 to end the support of Windows 7, one year back and January 2020..The decrease in decrease is 7%decrease.I tried to go back for another year, but even if I compare it 2.It is negative by 0%.Windows 11 is not a tailwind.The great influence of the GIGA School concept in the same month of the previous year is also proved by the fact that the depression on the laptop PC was particularly large.Laptop PC is 65 year -on -year.The 2%decrease is 444,000 units, and the mobile notebook announced as the number of the year is 76 from the same month of the previous year..It is 3%down to 199,000 units, a quarter or less.A mobile notebook is a category that applies to the specifications that are subject to subsidies in the GIGA school concept, and the recoil of the GIGA school concept is directly affected.On the other hand, the desktop PC was 0 year -on -year..It is almost flat, up 2%, 1007,000 units.Looking at the breakdown, all -in -one is 34.The decrease of 0%to 26,000 units is reduced to two -thirds, but 20 by itself.It has increased to 81,000 units to 6%.It can be said that the demand for the desktop alone is growing.On the other hand, according to BCN, which collects sales data such as major mass retailers, the track record in January 2021 was 24 year -on -year..3%decrease, the latest data is 23 in February 2022.It is 1%down, and it is still broken the previous year.Because it is limited to over -the -counter sales, it can be said that it is a data that captures market trends that do not directly affect the GIGA school demand, but it is still the previous year.Moreover, it is a big drop in the 20%range.According to the BCN aggregation, it has been broken the previous year for 11 consecutive months since April 2021, and has not been effective in Windows 11 released on October 5, 2021.■ The annual shipment of 2022 will be reduced by two digits.According to this, the shipment of domestic PCs in 2022 was 14 year -on -year..4%減の1,132万1,000台とし、2年連続での大幅な前年割れを見込んでいる。　JEITAのデータでも明らかなように、2022年1～3月は、前年同期がGIGAスクール構想の需要が最も集中した時期であり、その落ち込みは、年間を通じてもリカバリーできず、大幅な前年割れになるという見方だ。　MM総研では、2022年1～3月の大幅な出荷台数の減少を指摘しているが、法人の買い替え需要は大手企業を中心に堅調であり、2022年4～6月からは、減少幅が縮小し、市場は回復基調に転じると予測している。　MM総研の中村成希取締役は、「2022年のPC市場は、2年連続の減少が見込まれるが、市場は底打ちし、回復トレンドに向かう1年になる」としながらも、「コロナ禍による部品の供給不足や、価格高騰の影響に加えて、ウクライナでの軍事衝突なども影響し、サプライチェーンが不安定な状況が続くだろう」と、市況回復に向けた懸念材料をあげている。また、「2023年には年間で1,200万台以上となるほか、2024年にはOSの更新や、GIGAスクールなどの入れ替えがはじまることから、年間で1,400～1,500万台規模にまで、PC市場が再成長することが見込まれる。それに向けて、安定した製品供給網の確立が、メーカーには求められる」とコメントしている。　MM総研では、2023年以降の国内PC市場の回復を見込んでいるが、別のデータから、将来の国内PC市場の動きを見てみよう。　JEITAでは、毎年、「AV&IT機器世界需要動向調査」を発表しており、今年も2月25日にこの内容が公開され、2026年までの需要動向が示された。　表紙が黒いことから、業界内では「黒本」と呼ばれており、1991年の初版を発行して以来、今年が32版目になる。調査協力は富士キメラ総研が行っているが、業界団体が発表するデータという側面から、予測値などは、もともと保守的に見ている傾向が強い点は考慮しなくてはならないだろう。　また、JEITAが毎月発表している出荷統計が自主統計であり、統計参加企業による実績値だけを集計し、市場全体の約7割をカバーしている数値であるのに対して、黒本では推定値が加わり、市場全体を網羅している。そのため、自主統計のデータと黒本のデータには、あまり整合性がないといっていい。例えば、2021年の国内PC出荷実績は、自主統計では前年比15.Although it is 2%down to 8,869,000 units, the statistics in Kuromoto 23 year -on -year..There is a big difference from 11,11 million units, decreasing 4%.In addition, the track record in 2020, when strong demand from the GIGA School concept was added, was 7 year -on -year by voluntary statistics..It is plus 4%increase, but in Kuromoto 2.It is important to note that the negative growth is reduced by 0%, and that there is a gap in the view.By the way, last year's black book has a record of 2020..It was announced that it was 8%down, but in this year's black book 2.It should be noted that it has reduced 0%and has been modified about 11 points, and also use the latest data.According to the domestic PC market forecast shown in this black book, the annual average growth rate up to 2026 is minus 2.It is 2%, and the market size in 2026 is expected to be 9.94 million units.2022 is 16 year -on -year.The 2%decreased 9.3 million units and the 10 million units that have been maintained until 2021 are interrupted, and 2023 is 0..3%decreased to 9.27 million units.But in 2024 1.In 2025, which turned 2%to 9.38 million units, replacement special demand due to the end of Windows 10 support is expected 5 in 2025..9.9 million units increased by 5%, 0 in 2026.It increased by 4%to 9.94 million units. "Demand has been declining in 2022 in 2022, and this decline in demand continues until 2023, but from 2024 to 2026, said," Demand has been declining in 2022. Demands will increase slightly as the main factors are the increase in replacement demand in accordance with the end of Windows 10 support in 2025 and the replacement cycle of remote work that occurred from 2020 to 2021. "In 2026, technologies such as 4K displays and organic EL displays will be used to watch video distribution content. In addition, support for connected will be required, and in accordance with that, high -performance operations and high -performance operations and heights. He said that the utilization scene that makes use of the image quality display is expanded. Furthermore, E-Sports, metavers, video distribution, remote work, online classes, and online meetings can be expected as an element of demand. " Whether the strong world demand will turn negative, while Kuromoto also predicts the world's PC demand. According to this, 2021 increased 8%year -on -year to 370 million units, but in 2022 it turned negative and 5 year -on -year..It is expected to be 289.5 million units, down 7%.2023 also 8.It predicted negative growth to 265.4 million units to 3%."In 2021, the demand for remote work for remote work due to the spread of the new colonovirus, following 2020, has been significantly increased.It increased significantly compared to the previous year, and the appearance of the new OS, Windows 11, also supported the increase in demand for some users to replace hardware. "In the year, it is expected that overall demand will decrease from the previous year and continue to decline until 2023. "2024 was 0 year -on -year.2%increased 266 million units, 0 in 2025.2%increased 266.5 million units, 0 in 2026.It is predicted that it will change slightly to 268.2 million units up by 6%. "From 2024 to 2026, the demand for replacements will increase ahead of the end of Windows10 support in 2025. Demand is expected to increase again due to the replacement cycle period of the increase in remote work -related demand." In the domestic PC market, it is common to see that demand will recover at a stretch from 2024 to 2025 in fiscal 2022. Behind this is the expectation that Windows 10 support is expected to be replaced on October 14, 2025, and the demand for PCs optimized for the hybrid work environment will continue. Furthermore, there is an expectation that if there is a budget measures for replacement demand for the GIGA School Concept, a large replacement demand will occur there. The focus is on when the demand mountain starts up and how high the mountain will be, and what kind of device can be done throughout the PC industry for that.

PC Watch, Katsuyuki Okawara