The reason why Toyota is ahead of the world with the next -generation value chain concept is ... Takaki Nakanishi, Analyst of Nakanishi Motor Industry Research

Opening of cars that progresses at the same time as electrification has shown a great possibility in the value chain in the out -car area.What is the difference between the next -generation value chain and its approach aimed at by major car manufacturers in each country?

Finance changes accelerate CASE

---: This seminar is based on the value chain strategy of the automotive industry.

Nakanishi: CASE is currently accelerating with a furious momentum.Behind this is the geopolitical change and the rise of the new Normal by Corona.As a result, carbon neutral (removal carbon) and digitalization are greatly accelerated.First of all, electrification will attack the industry as a large wave, but in order for the domestic automobile industry represented by Toyota to maintain international competitiveness, futuristic smart mobility from traditional repair parts and used cars.Building a value chain that spreads out is very important.I am planning to explain the business and strategic implications in this seminar.

2021 was an epoch -making year for almost all car manufacturers in the world to announce an electric vehicle strategy centered on electric vehicles (BEVs).What I am paying attention to is that the sustainable finance is strongly effective as a market mechanism.In short, instead of compliance in the past, it is starting to undergo such pressure to use the market mechanism to expel you from society if you keep out CO2.

The automotive industry, which has a serious responsibility in the transportation department, explains in detail the governance structure of companies that can guarantee the technical strategy, business planning, structural transformation, and the governance structure of companies that can ensure its realization.We continue to emit messages to stakeholders and society about the appearance of the progress.

---: The change in finance standards seems to have a big impact.

Nakanishi: The rule is created as a rule, and it is on the flow of carbonization, so it cannot be resisted as a company.The automotive market in developed countries around the world has transformed into a new rule involving nations.For example, there are huge home markets in Europe and the United States.Each nation is promoting rules making that will work on its own industry from the viewpoint of economic security.Volkswagen and GM BEV strategies are aiming to change business structurally on the rules determined by the nation.This is called a Djuri strategy ( * Note).

* Djuru strategy: Strategy that uses standardization rules specified by the country and public standardization organizations.On the other hand, as a de facto standard is called the de facto standard while the support is gained in the market, it is called the de facto strategy to find a business opportunity in it.

For example, the change from Trump to President Biden has returned to the Paris Agreement and has been reducing full -fledged GHG (greenhouse Gas).However, if you seriously proceed with this, the first thing you get stuck is GM and Ford in your country, which depends on large car sales.It is a UAW (US Automobile Trade Association) worker who loses work.As a result of climate change policy, if the national industry declines, it will be overturned, so it is necessary to protect them and support the business structure change.

Toyota against the flow of the world

---:I see.The extreme change of Western OEM is only due to the backing of the country.

Nakanishi: Europe is a carbon tax, carbon border adjustment mechanism, and the United States is a subsidy policy.The domestic automotive industry is being attacked by these two weapons.I think it is a critical situation in the long term.

As the world's rule making progresses, the strategy of Western automakers in 2021 was embodied.It is formed from three main pillars, the first "vertical integration", the second "standardization", and the third "value chain".

Specifically, the batteries and software are integrated vertically, creating a tremendous standard platform and making a megas kale.This BEV vehicle is an IT platform itself, and it is a strategy to expand the software first value chain.The point here is the aim to establish a scale first by promoting the construction of a BEV infrastructure while receiving government assistance as a disulse strategy.

Toyota is directly opposing these trends in December 2021.While saying that we would do the same BEV, we witnessed it with surprise that the strategy was so different.

Toyota doesn't have much global standardization concept.If you sell things that meet the needs of consumers, you may sell a lot of electric vehicles in one area, but in some areas, you can sell completely different things.As a result, it says that the powertrain is in all directions.

In short, Akio Toyoda said that we would like to deliver each one carefully according to the region and consumers.As a result, it is chosen, and it becomes the de facto.

Toyota chooses the way of fighting, rather than standardization.This is clearly reflected in the Toyota platform.

Other companies are promoting a skateboard (skateboard) BEV platform with the optimal hardware in a chassis equivalent to the Tesla platform.The overwhelming standardization of hardware achieves megascalization, and they are planned to mass -produce in the huge home market in Europe and the United States.

On the other hand, Toyota's BEV -only platform is a module type close to the current engine car.The front, center, and rear three structural modules take each technical evolution in modules, and will continue to evolve in the first and second rounds.

Certainly, standardization progresses in the module basis.However, it also tolerates that the characteristics are divided in the region, but we make various BEVs while combining them.I think this is trying to be more complicated and more difficult than developing a skateboard -shaped BEV platform worldwide.

Such a way of thinking looks very inefficient from the world of electricity.In the world of electricity, it is only necessary to create hardware that enhances standardization, mass -produce and control them with software.The effect is also what Tesla's success tells me.

Toyota rushing to build a value chain base

---: Then there are concerns that Toyota will be late for other manufacturers.

Nakanishi: Toyota's strategic nature is not to solidify the BEV base at this stage, but rather dare to build the value chain base first, and achieve the BEV conversion in the future to use the results.It's going to go.

The European strategy builds the BEV base with great help from the government, and expands the value chain infrastructure by expanding the ecosystem as an IT architecture.In short, there is a difference in the approach.

I think that the conflict between Japanese manufacturers, which must take the degration strategy and the de facto, is fate from the past.I don't know if the Western strategy will win, but considering that the government supports this strategy in policy and rule making, it is a highly compelling and consistent strategy.

In order for Toyota's strategy to be established, the basis of the value chain must be well constructed.Otherwise, in the future, you will hear the story of various customers and lose the profit base itself, which will turn the large -scale legacy base to BEV in all directions.

This is the sustainable possibility, and the theme of this seminar is to organize the aim of building a value chain and verify the true value/evolution of future mobility.

Toyota has expanded its efforts to Value chains, such as investing in Uber and Grab early and jointly conducting SoftBank and MaaS businesses in the form of human -style, logistics MAAS, smart city, and software.

The traditional value chain area has focused on repair parts and accessories, based on so -called sales finance businesses.This initiative is actually very strong and rides on the first wave chain growth.The problem is the second wave after this.Kinto, a subscription, started smoothly, but has a scale -up issue.The same is true for the used car business.In the financial business, the area has not been expanded, such as multi -branding and importing insurance businesses.

The most important thing is how to organize and utilize the data collected in the connector strategy to monetize the data.I haven't been able to ride this much about this.Whether the transformation from the first wave to the second wave really works.

Notable Volkswagen roadmap

The carbon native is spreading the world of out -cars that I haven't seen before.

The importance of connecting with carbon neutral, SDGs and vehicle incar, which was not visible in past connected strategies, is growing.From the OS in the inker to the software, the E/E architecture to realize it, and the hardware centered on BEVs, everything is in the stage.

Based on them, the SSP (Scalable System Platform), which is exactly the integrated architecture of Volkswagen, is the turning point in 2025.Vw is the core.OS 2.It is 0.

---: Vw.OS is already ID.It is in 3, but 2.Does it mean that 0 is 2025?

Nakanishi: That's right.ID.3 is based on the first BEV -only platform Meb, so Vw.OS Ver1.1 is implemented.ID.3 or ID.4 is an ECU upgradable, but each is not integrate.In fact, the part to be upgraded has actually surfaced, and the production of mass -produced expansion and customer experience are still far from the ideal.

---: Isn't the separation of hardware and software yet?

Nakanishi: It's not done.Vw ahead.OS Ver1.In 2, the Android Auto Motive is installed, but the hard hard and software has not yet been separated.Attention is to move to a completely new E/E architecture with a domain controller..OS Ver2.At the stage of 0, the head is expected to be 2025.

Vw.OS Ver2.The soft hardware is separated around 0, and the inside of the car is completely concealed for networks inside the vehicle.The three high -performance computers (HPCs) will be controlled, but the functions of the car in the car will be integrated, centered on the zone controller.It is a generation that does not interfere with the ECU that software coming from outside.

---: In the case of Tesla, you have already made a zone architecture with a commercial car.

Nakanishi: Tesla has been realized from the 2018 Model 3.It is the story that Japan and the world's automakers are said to be 6 years late.But now it's not just Tesla.So is NIO and XPENG.Many Chinese emerging manufacturers take that form.

Major OEM has different value chain scale

---: Autosar Adaptive is progressing as an industry standard, but is the so-called Chinese-style OS more advanced?

Nakanishi: I don't say it's progressing, but it's easy to introduce.On the other hand, it is expected that existing major global manufacturers will begin to introduce in 2025.Certainly, the time of introduction is delayed, but it is designed in anticipation of future development so that the scale that can be connected even more can be expanded from emerging EV manufacturers.Although it is late, the ecosystem itself has a very huge potential.Traditional major car manufacturers have a unique way of fighting.

The first market itself is small for Tesla and Chinese emerging companies, who are trying to take early adapters and gradually increase them.But because they are for early adapters, they can share enough and eat.

Then, there is a big issue on how to move to the mass market.The approach is completely different between the emerging side and the traditional side.

---: The big ecosystem means that the value chain in the out-car area is large?

Nakanishi: That's right.The connection area is overwhelmingly expanding.The area where the out -car is connected is even larger.Social responsibility is heavy, and demanding performance such as cyber security and safety authentication is high.To do so, the reliability and quality of the OS base and software are required.

The concept of Toyota seen from the ARENE OS

For the automotive industry, the second group of value chains, which spread after 2025, means turning into a new business model called software first.For that reason, in the case of Toyota, ARENE, a vehicle OS developed by Woven Alpha, is important.

ARENE OS has two aspects, one is the vehicle OS itself, and the other is the development support base for developing applications in the open API.A platform on a digital twin that provides APIs that can access and can easily design, test and implement.

In order to create a new customer experience in collaboration with various services on the outcur, it is necessary to simplify complex information that enters and exit the in -car area and the intercourse that is masked.。At the same time, it is necessary to have a mechanism that does not interfere with hardware and ECU that controls it when updating software with OTA.

The software platform that provides outcars and in -car exchanges as standard APIs is the idea of vehicle OS.The ECU side is surfaced, the vehicle OS defines all APs (access points), and the software is separated from the car (hard) with the idea that it becomes an open API.

The application that moves on the vehicle OS can achieve all kinds of coordination with the car without touching the ECU at all.In other words, coordination between the car and the outside is free.This is a true connectic door, and that means that the ecosystem spreads.

What kind of world you can see is that it will be a world where you can download various apps in OTA, and you can download various apps, replacing them with a smartphone -like car.

For example, NTT and Toyota's smart city platforms and MONET can be linked.In other words, smart cars lead to smart mobility, connect to smart homes, and connect to smart city.Mr. Kafner ( * Note) says this is an android for a so -called living.

* Kafner: James Kafner CEO, CEO, Toyota Motor Corporation CHIEF DIGITAL OFFICER, CEO of Toyota Motor, CEO of Woven Alpha, CESIDENT

When this kind of ecosystem is expanded, the spread of various ecosystem may not be a car.I think it is important to make such an ecosystem as the ability to cooperate with everyone.

Such a concept has started with WOVEN CITY now, and I think that it will open before the mobility show ( * Note) in about 2023.Therefore, we perform services, products, UX, so -called real prototype experiments, and simulation using the Toyota production system on digital twins.This is the current situation.

* Mobility show: Tentative name for the successor event of the Tokyo Motor Show.Scheduled to be held in the fall of 2023.

Data coming from cars and living data are connected, creating various new products and services.Here is a large mountain of the second wave.

GM is actually transmitting exactly the same thing.GM will make 9 trillion yen sales in the second wave in the future.He talks about earning $ 50 billion in 2030 on a cruise of an autonomous driving MAAS car, doing $ 25 billion in software first, and making $ 10 billion in logistics.

GM is led by the government, and has a BEV business base first.In other words, government money supports the GM business change.On the foundation, we are trying to draw future developments.

On the other hand, it is no exaggeration to say that Japan has a handicap on everything.In the first place, resources are scarce, conversion costs to renewable energy are high, and the spread of BEV is inevitable to leave the world.If Europe and the United States have taken the policy of eliminating Japanese cars with carbon taxes and subsidies, what are the countermeasures in Japan?

After all, Japan must have the power to have a successful case in the world in the world with value chains as de facto to the world ( * de facto standards due to market support). think.

Eco -systems beyond the vehicle OS

---: Vehicle OS seems to be the biggest point for creating next-generation value chains.

Nakanishi: Vehicle OS is an OEM competition area.Of course, we can work together, so we can do something like Toyota friends.However, it is a competitive area divided into 5 and 6 groups in the world.

From a car manufacturer, the meaning of properly establishing a vehicle OS is that the AP (access point) is properly determined, the API is used by everyone, and it is the standard of the de facto.

It is an important competitive axis that is absolutely necessary for car manufacturers to become companies like Apple.There are always discussions inside the company.How to organize and integrate the ECU to intensive control.However, there are various changes outside.It depends on how the car is connected to the change in the world and whether it will be a really useful car.If you do not establish such a thing, automakers will really be a manufacturer to make a mobile phone.

---: Does the result of the vehicle OS itself have a significant effect on how much the value chain can be taken?

Nakanishi: Unfortunately, it's not just a vehicle OS.What kind of software, services, and applications are downloaded to the car?If you don't download the app, it's just a box.This part is important because it is the source of creating an ecosystem.

Therefore, the development power of high -quality and high quality software is very important, and attractive applications and autonomous driving software are required using OTA while controlling communication and high -cloud fixed costs.Various other apps are downloaded, and this spreads the ecosystem, so how do you design the software first business model?

I think Toyota is the first to hit the stone among automakers around the world.I have come up with ARENE OS on the premise of collaboration with the smart city OS under development in cooperation with NTT.I don't think it was Mercedes -Benz or Volkswagen for many years.

I think MONET's initiative was quick.MONET is virtually a multipurpose MaaS de facto and its publicity is very high.The design of the Arene OS in cooperation with the data here is also much ahead of the world as a problem solving type.This is also one ecosystem.

After all, Japan is an advanced country, so problems that are occurring in Japan will always be a problem around the world.I think China comes first, but providing solutions for it has a great potential.

I think that Toyota, who has jumped into the design of this Arene OS with such a vision, is looking at a large story line, so I have an expectation there.

How to fight the de facto strategy

---: Toyota has a big scenario in the future in corporate activities.

Nakanishi: Regarding hardware, it is a Western manufacturer who is going to go in a Tesla style in the future, and a Japanese manufacturer who has been trying hard to try and error because Japan may still have a solution.There is still a difference.

However, it does not necessarily mean that you can win if you do it in Europe and the United States.In the vertical integration industry, it still evolves in dinosaur because large things still win.In other words, if a strong thing wins.

However, when it comes to the industry where horizontal division of labor is progressing steadily, it is not a strength to be large.Toyota's Maeda CTO talks about what can respond to changes will survive in an example of the previous seminar ( * Note).

The strategy of Western manufacturers is a decisive type.You can make a decision because there is a large home market and the government will support you.That's why I'm trying to get a lot of competitiveness ahead.

In Japan, there is no composition that will help you to help you when the decision is not good.After all, you have to have a variety of examinations until the end and finally choose.However, when it comes to Toyota -like methods, there are many trial and error, and while assuming various changes, I do it while including various scenarios, so it is very flexible when something happens.Easy to respond.

However, there is a handicap on your back as much as you sacrifice the efficiency.

It is important how everyone can solidify in the same direction.At least it seems to be solid among the 5.5 million automotive industry.But it's not always the case that Panasonic, NTT, SoftBank and Toyota are always on the same strategy.

Even with 5.5 million people, the company's settlement of automakers has continued to be revised upward, and the suppliers have a lot of downward revisions and the light and dark are divided.

Everyone is getting full of my own, and I feel different, but in the competition with the world, it is quite important that Japan is united, and it changes.Being able to respond flexibly to the accumulation of daily efforts and improvement is probably coming.I think it is important to keep it as a strength of Japan, including trust.

The history of the automotive industry can be said to be a description standard and de facto standard battle.In Japan, the home market is small and you have to choose from consumers around the world.After all it is the de facto standard.I think that it was chosen and became an industry that supported Japan.

GM and Ford, who have said that they are the era of global cars, have become local local manufacturers in the United States, and Toyota, who is said to be the most late in global cars, is working hard on the world's most global and full line.。

---: Does that mean that the world's position in the world is doing so?

Nakanishi: I often talk about this with overseas investors.I'm told to tell me the strategy of Japanese automakers.When I tell, most of everyone says, "Oh, this is a Garakae strategy, I don't think it's good."

That's because you've seen the game of your smartphone.The smartphone has replaced Garakae in about five years.Considering the rise of emerging manufacturers in China today, the competitiveness of Tesla, and the user experience, it is certain that they are heading for smartphones.This is a really big debate whether this is in time.

The biggest discussion is that Toyota production method is really effective for software and data?The aforementioned Toyota's Maeda CTO says, "That's the game of the game," but we don't know.It's like that, I'm going to follow while feeling anxiety.

Sony should work with a Japanese manufacturer

---: In January this year, Arene OS reported that third-party developers welcome the participation.At the same time, the CES also announced that GM announced a vehicle OS called Ultifi, and would also welcome the development of third -party apps.

Is these remarks looking at the fact that marketplace is formed by various applications that support vehicle OS, and the business and value chains in the out -car area are expanding from there?

Nakanishi: The car has been very closed so far.This is a vehicle OS in the outside world, and the world that is really connected is spreading in a different form from the conventional connector.

If you match this vehicle OS AP, all applications will be able to provide functions without interfering with hardware, so it will be infinite.

This kind of interesting thing will move with the AP of the vehicle OS, and you will have to enclose more people who will be willing to develop this kind of thing.That is still the game place.

With Toyota, which is mainly in Japan, and GM and Volkswagen, who are trying to play around Europe and the United States, naturally differ in the spread and strength of the ecosystem.

Because we think that there is a Japanese issue here, it is a great potential for Japan that companies like Sony connect hands with the Japanese automotive industry to create the value of new cars.think.I personally want Sony to choose a Japanese automaker as a partner.

Unfortunately, Sony will not have the hardware development capabilities that can really provide safe and secure as a car at this stage.I think I have to work with the existing OEM.I think that Sony's knowledge of IT, and by complementing the car manufacturer that seems to be a weakness that is inevitable, can be a Win-Win relationship.

---: If you bring your own assets, it will be the best combination.

Nakanishi: I really think that it can be a surviving model in Japan.Since anime exports alone cannot be eaten, processing trade is still required.

Considering only the current visible world, I am worried that there will be no future in Japan, and it will not be possible to make manufacturing anymore in Japan.After all innovation is necessary.I think it is such a different industry union that can be the opportunity for such innovation.

I have something really strong, Japan.By attaching it and bridging it, there is a possibility that you can turn into a new competitiveness.I think there is a new base for making Japanese manufacturing there.I wonder if that evolution will be made.I haven't seen it yet.